Week 4 is a chance to separate strong starts from sustainable football. Some teams are winning through quarterback execution. Others are creating extra possessions, surviving injuries or taking advantage of opponents still trying to find their rhythm.
Those differences matter. A winning record tells us what happened. Quarterback play, protection, third-down execution and red-zone production help explain whether it can keep happening.
The week opened with Cleveland's 27–24 victory over Pittsburgh. Fifteen games remain, including an unbeaten AFC West showdown, a London matchup and two prime-time division games on Sunday and Monday. [1]
Week 4 schedule
All kickoff times are Eastern. [1]
| Date | Matchup | Kickoff / result |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday, October 1 | Steelers at Browns | Cleveland won 27–24 |
| Sunday, October 4 | Colts at Commanders - London | 9:30 a.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Titans at Ravens | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Patriots at Bills | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Jets at Bears | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Jaguars at Bengals | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Cowboys at Texans | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Cardinals at Giants | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Rams at Eagles | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Packers at Buccaneers | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Dolphins at Vikings | 4:05 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Chiefs at Raiders | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Chargers at Seahawks | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Broncos at 49ers | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, October 4 | Lions at Panthers | 8:20 p.m. |
| Monday, October 5 | Falcons at Saints | 8:15 p.m. |
Thursday's result: Cleveland gets to 3–1
The Browns survived Pittsburgh, 27–24, improving to 3–1 and dropping the Steelers to 2–2. Andre Szmyt's 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left settled the game after Pittsburgh erased an 11-point halftime deficit. Cleveland has put itself in position to remain part of the AFC North conversation as the rest of the division finishes its Week 4 work. [2]
For Deshaun Watson, stacking wins gives his return more substance. For Cleveland, the next step is turning an encouraging opening month into consistent execution. A division win is valuable, but the Browns still have to build on it.
Colts at Commanders: Can Mariota keep Washington moving?
Washington comes off a 33–31 upset of Seattle. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns without an interception, and Terry McLaurin contributed 77 receiving yards and a touchdown. That performance gave the Commanders a needed spark. [3]
Jayden Daniels remains out with an elbow injury, leaving Mariota to start again. Indianapolis arrives after beating Houston, 19–17. [4]
The matchup comes down to whether Washington can sustain its offensive execution and whether Indianapolis can turn stops into productive possessions. The Colts need ball security, manageable third downs and touchdowns when they get scoring opportunities. Washington needs Mariota to keep the offense organized without asking him to rescue every drive.
What to watch: Mariota's decision-making, Indianapolis' pass defense and which offense finishes drives.
Titans at Ravens: Baltimore needs control to match its firepower
The Ravens enter 2–1 after a 34–31 win over Dallas in Rio de Janeiro. Tennessee is 0–3. Lamar Jackson's season numbers include 9.8 yards per pass attempt and a 113.1 passer rating, while Derrick Henry has 301 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. [5]
Henry facing his former team adds another storyline, but Baltimore's larger concern is sustaining control. The Ravens' own preview identifies missed tackles and difficulty protecting leads as problems. [6]
Tennessee needs to keep the game within reach through its defense and avoid an early deficit that makes its offense predictable. Baltimore needs cleaner tackling, disciplined possessions and an offense that keeps applying pressure after taking the lead.
What to watch: Tennessee's early-down run defense and Baltimore's ability to finish a game it controls.
Patriots at Bills: Maye has to stop giving possessions away
New England is 1–2, and Buffalo is 3–0. Drake Maye has one passing touchdown, six interceptions and a lost fumble through three starts. His passer rating is 58.6, and the Patriots are coming off a 35–6 loss to Jacksonville. [7]
Buffalo can win through more than Josh Allen's passing. James Cook rushed for 154 yards on 24 carries against the Chargers, helping the Bills win, 24–16. [7]
The Patriots' upset path starts with protecting Maye and protecting the football. Their defense also has to keep Cook from making every possession comfortable for Buffalo. For the Bills, avoiding unnecessary giveaways would force New England to earn its scoring opportunities through sustained drives.
What to watch: Maye under pressure, Cook's early-down production and the turnover margin.
Jets at Bears: Chicago's backup plan gets another test
Case Keenum helped Chicago beat Philadelphia with 247 passing yards, two touchdowns and a 110.8 passer rating. Caleb Williams is out again with a hamstring injury, but the Bears had not publicly announced whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent would start as of Friday. [8]
The Jets have been competitive, but protection remains a concern. Detroit sacked Geno Smith four times in Week 3 and ended New York's comeback attempt with a strip-sack. [9]
Chicago needs its quarterback to keep the offense on schedule. New York needs to avoid letting pressure erase productive possessions. This matchup can turn on a handful of third downs and whether either offense gives its opponent a short field.
What to watch: Chicago's starting-quarterback decision and New York's pass protection late in drives.
Jaguars at Bengals: Burrow changes the quarterback equation
Jacksonville deserves credit for its wins, but the opposing quarterback play deserves context. In Week 1, Deshaun Watson was returning after several injury-plagued years. The Jaguars also faced Drake Maye, who has struggled badly during New England's opening stretch.
Joe Burrow presents a different challenge. He threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville's own preview identifies pressuring a healthy Burrow as a priority. [10]
The Jaguars cannot count on facing another quarterback still trying to find his rhythm. They have to disrupt an effective passer and cover an offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Jacksonville's run game can help by sustaining possessions and reducing how often Burrow gets the ball.
S³ lean: Bengals. Jacksonville must show its defense can dictate terms against a quarterback playing strong football.
Cowboys at Texans: Houston needs the win
The Texans are 0–3, while Dallas is 1–2. Both teams are coming off close losses, but Houston's urgency is growing. The Texans need to turn competitive stretches into a complete winning performance. [11]
Dallas has allowed 179.7 rushing yards per game, giving Houston a reason to establish the ground game. On the other side, the Texans have to pressure Dak Prescott while handling the outside threats of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. [11]
For Houston, the priority is straightforward: protect C.J. Stroud, finish scoring opportunities and avoid wasting the work of the defense. Needing a win does not produce one. Execution has to match the urgency.
S³ focus: Houston needs to stop the slide. No winner or score prediction has been assigned here.
Cardinals at Giants: Arizona can move the ball; New York needs touchdowns
Arizona is 1–2, but its record does not capture how competitive the Cardinals have been. They scored 30 points in their latest loss to San Francisco. New York is 2–1 after beating Tennessee, 12–7, but Jaxson Dart is out for the season. [12]
The Giants' record is stronger than Arizona's. Their current offensive situation is more difficult. Without Dart, sustaining drives and finding touchdowns are central concerns.
I like Arizona's ability to move the ball in this matchup. New York needs to turn possessions into more than field-goal opportunities. If the Giants cannot produce touchdowns, they will ask their defense to play with very little room for error.
S³ lean: Cardinals. Arizona has the more encouraging offensive outlook entering this game.
Rams at Eagles: Two offenses need a cleaner performance
Matthew Stafford has Davante Adams among his established targets. Philadelphia is working through its first season with Sean Mannion directing the offense, and the Eagles are trying to respond to their loss in Chicago. [13]
Philadelphia's defense entered the week without a takeaway through three games. That puts added pressure on the offense to build its own scoring opportunities rather than depend on short fields. [14]
For the Rams, protection and third-down execution can help Stafford exploit opportunities without forcing throws. For the Eagles, Jalen Hurts and the offense need to stay ahead of the chains and make their scoring chances count. A takeaway could change the game, but Philadelphia cannot build its entire plan around finally getting one.
What to watch: Pass protection, third-down conversions and whether Philadelphia creates an extra possession.
Packers at Buccaneers: Green Bay has its starting quarterback
The quarterback availability advantage belongs to Green Bay. Jordan Love is available, while Baker Mayfield has been ruled out with a thumb injury. Rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start for Tampa Bay. [15]
The Packers have their own protection issues to solve. Guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are out, forcing adjustments in front of Love. [16]
Tampa Bay needs to support Daniels with manageable situations, a productive run game and dependable protection. Green Bay needs to make its quarterback advantage count without allowing pressure through the middle to disrupt the offense.
S³ lean: Packers. Love's availability gives Green Bay the edge, provided the offensive line holds up.
Dolphins at Vikings: Minnesota should control this matchup
The Vikings are 3–0, and Miami is 0–3. Minnesota will be without Justin Jefferson, who has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson become especially important to the passing game. [17]
That injury reduces Minnesota's offensive firepower, but I still expect the Vikings to win comfortably. Their defense gives them a foundation for controlling the game without needing an offensive explosion.
Miami needs sustained possessions and ball security to avoid spending the afternoon chasing the score. Minnesota needs to play clean football and make the Dolphins earn every opportunity.
S³ pick: Vikings. I expect Minnesota to handle this game even without Jefferson.
Chiefs at Raiders: Las Vegas gets its biggest test
Kansas City and Las Vegas both enter 3–0. Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes, tied with Brock Purdy for the league lead. The Raiders also lead the NFL with nine takeaways. Brock Bowers returned in Week 3 with 10 catches, 116 yards and a touchdown. [18]
Those numbers explain the Raiders' start. Their defense creates extra possessions, and the offense turns opportunities into touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City now test whether Las Vegas can keep winning when those advantages are harder to generate.
The Raiders need pressure that disrupts Mahomes without opening easy answers behind it. Kansas City needs to protect the ball and force Las Vegas to sustain drives. The battle involving Bowers, Travis Kelce and the defenders covering them adds another important layer.
What to watch: Pressure without excessive blitzing, tight-end coverage and which team wins possessions without a turnover assist.
Chargers at Seahawks: The snowball continues?
Both teams are coming off losses, but they face different problems. Seattle is 2–1 after Washington's upset. The Chargers are 0–3 and trying to keep the first month from turning into a deeper hole. [19]
I expect Seattle to bounce back at home. The Seahawks need better ball security and a stronger finish, while Los Angeles needs a complete performance that finally turns its opportunities into a win.
For the Chargers, desperation has to produce sharper football. Falling behind early would put more pressure on an offense already trying to stop the slide.
S³ pick: Seahawks. Seattle responds, and the snowball continues for the Chargers with another loss.
Broncos at 49ers: Purdy's efficiency faces Denver's pressure
San Francisco is 3–0, and Denver is 2–1. Brock Purdy has a league-leading 133.1 passer rating, nine touchdown passes and a 72.3 percent completion rate. He has not been sacked through three starts. The 49ers have scored touchdowns on nine of their first 10 red-zone trips. [20]
Denver has eight sacks, but getting to Purdy requires more than rushing well. The Broncos need to win early downs and prevent San Francisco from controlling the situations it faces. Mike Evans' questionable status also bears watching. [20]
Christian McCaffrey's versatility makes that task harder. Denver's offense can help by sustaining drives and limiting the number of possessions San Francisco gets.
What to watch: Whether Denver forces Purdy off schedule and whether the 49ers maintain their red-zone efficiency.
Lions at Panthers: Gibbs gives Detroit multiple ways to attack
Jahmyr Gibbs produced 164 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns against the Jets. Jared Goff enters Week 4 with 802 passing yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Detroit can attack through its backfield, its receivers and its tight ends. [9]
Carolina needs to tackle Gibbs in space and avoid letting short gains become explosive plays. Bryce Young needs protection and an offense that finishes possessions, particularly if Detroit forces the Panthers to keep answering scores.
The Lions also have to defend more consistently. Their offense gives them plenty of scoring potential, but leaving opponents within reach makes every late possession more stressful.
What to watch: Gibbs after contact and after the catch, Young under pressure and Detroit's ability to preserve a lead.
Falcons at Saints: Production has to survive the fourth quarter
Atlanta comes off a 35–14 win over Green Bay, with Drake London and Bijan Robinson giving the offense important ways to attack. New Orleans is coming off a game in which Tyler Shough threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns, yet the Saints lost to Las Vegas, 35–27. [21]
The Saints' finish explains why passing production alone does not settle the analysis. Four late turnovers helped erase their advantage. Against Atlanta, ball security has to accompany the offensive production. [21]
The Falcons need to make Shough uncomfortable without surrendering easy completions behind the rush. New Orleans needs to tackle well, account for London's size and keep Robinson from controlling the game through both rushing and receiving.
What to watch: Atlanta's pressure, New Orleans' ball security and which team executes when the game reaches the fourth quarter.
The S³ priorities for Week 4
Quarterback context matters. Jacksonville beating quarterbacks who were struggling is relevant to its matchup with Burrow. Green Bay having Love available matters against a rookie starter. Chicago winning with Keenum does not settle its next starting-quarterback decision.
Third downs and red-zone trips have to produce results. An offense can move the ball and still waste a game through stalled drives. Touchdowns create separation; repeated field goals keep opponents alive.
Pressure has to affect the play. A high blitz rate means a defense sends extra rushers. It does not automatically mean the quarterback is uncomfortable. If those rushers do not arrive, the coverage behind them can become vulnerable.
Takeaways help, but ordinary stops still matter. Las Vegas has made turnovers central to its start. Philadelphia needs to create its first. Both defenses also need to win possessions when the ball does not come loose.
Protection requires more than a sack total. Sacks, pressures, time to throw and the situations an offense faces all add context. A low sack total is encouraging; it should not be described as a weakness on its own.
The S³ picks and leans established for the six added matchups: Cincinnati, Arizona, Green Bay, Minnesota and Seattle. Houston's need for a win is the central storyline against Dallas; a winner has not been selected for that matchup.
Sources
Facts and injury statuses checked October 3, 2026. Matchup judgments and the identified S³ picks reflect the editorial analysis above.
- FantasyPros: Full Week 4 schedule
- Browns: Thursday's game recap and Steelers: 2–2 record and final drive
- Reuters: Mariota leads Washington past Seattle
- Reuters: Daniels ruled out; Mariota to start and NFL: Indianapolis' 19–17 Week 3 win
- Ravens: Week 4 matchup information and season statistics
- Ravens: Titans game preview
- Bills: Week 4 storylines and game center
- Bears: Quarterback decision and injury updates
- Panthers: Detroit scouting preview
- Reuters: Burrow's Week 3 performance and Jaguars: Keys against Cincinnati
- Texans: Cowboys matchup preview
- Giants: Week 3 analysis, records and Dart injury
- Rams: Davante Adams, Eagles: Sean Mannion and Week 4 preview
- Bleeding Green Nation: Philadelphia's takeaway drought
- Buccaneers: Final Week 4 injury report and NFL: Jalon Daniels to start
- Packers: Final Week 4 injury report
- Reuters: Jefferson ruled out; Vikings and Dolphins records
- Raiders: Takeaways, Cousins and Bowers and game recap
- Seahawks: Week 4 preview and team records and Field Gulls: Washington result
- Broncos: San Francisco matchup, Purdy and red-zone statistics
- Falcons: Green Bay postgame interviews, Saints: Shough's 255-yard, four-touchdown performance and Week 4 preview with Week 3 recap links
