S³ NFL Prediction | November 5, 2026

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens (4-4) in a matchup featuring two defenses that are nearly identical in total yards allowed but considerably different in their ability to prevent points.

Sweet Science Sports is taking Jacksonville to win, 27-17.

Jacksonville Has the Defensive Advantage

The Jaguars allow 331.3 yards per game, compared with Baltimore's 331.0. That's practically identical.

The difference comes on the scoreboard.

Jacksonville allows just 15.9 points per game, while Baltimore surrenders 25.4. The Jaguars also rank fourth in opponent red-zone touchdown percentage at 40.91%, compared with Baltimore's 67.86%.

Jacksonville has been especially effective against the run, allowing only 77.4 rushing yards per contest. That will be important against Derrick Henry, who has rushed for 632 yards and eight touchdowns.

Baltimore's Quarterback Situation Is the Deciding Factor

With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out, Baltimore faces the difficult task of relying on Joe Fagnano against one of the NFL's better scoring defenses.

The Ravens have already struggled offensively, scoring just 33 combined points over their last three games.

Fagnano could surprise, but expecting him to reverse those offensive struggles against Jacksonville is a difficult proposition.

Baltimore needs Henry to establish the running game and keep its inexperienced quarterback out of obvious passing situations.

Trevor Lawrence Gives Jacksonville the Edge

Lawrence enters the matchup with 1,690 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Jacksonville averages 28 points per game and carries a +7 turnover differential, compared with Baltimore's even differential.

The Jaguars aren't unbeatable, especially on the road, but they have demonstrated the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities while limiting opponents in the red zone.

S³ Final Prediction

Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Baltimore Ravens 17

Baltimore's defense should keep the game competitive, but the quarterback injuries, Jacksonville's scoring efficiency and the Jaguars' ability to prevent touchdowns give the visitors the advantage.

The Ravens will need an exceptional defensive performance and a productive game from Derrick Henry to pull off the victory.

S³ Pick: Jacksonville by 10.