The Dallas Cowboys entered Thursday night with an opportunity.
At 2–2, Dallas had a chance to defeat a winless Tampa Bay team at home, move above .500 and build momentum as the NFL season moved deeper into October.
Instead, one of the Cowboys' biggest weaknesses became the story of the night.
Tampa Bay ran for 241 yards, forced three turnovers and defeated Dallas 24–16, giving the Buccaneers their first victory of the season.
Dallas falls to 2–3.
Tampa Bay improves to 1–4.
And while S³ picked Dallas to win this game, the concerns we identified before kickoff ultimately became the reasons the Cowboys lost.
S³ Warned About the Dallas Defense
Our prediction was Dallas 31, Tampa Bay 21, but it came with a major warning.
The Cowboys' defense, particularly against the run, was vulnerable.
Tampa Bay didn't just test that weakness.
They attacked it all night.
The Buccaneers finished with 241 rushing yards on 39 carries, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt.
Dallas?
50 rushing yards on 13 attempts.
That's a 191-yard difference on the ground.
The Cowboys had opportunities to win this game, but you can't consistently surrender that kind of production on the ground and expect your quarterback to rescue you every week.
Bucky Irving Explodes
Bucky Irving was the difference-maker.
The Tampa Bay running back finished with:
21 carries | 165 yards | 7.9 yards per carry
His 72-yard run to begin the second half changed the complexion of the game.
Tampa entered halftime trailing 10–7. Irving immediately ripped through Dallas' defense, setting up Emeka Egbuka's 14-yard touchdown run on a jet sweep that gave the Buccaneers a 14–10 lead.
From there, Tampa began taking control.
Irving's performance wasn't simply one explosive run, either. Remove the 72-yarder and he still gained 93 yards on his other 20 carries.
Dallas couldn't consistently get him on the ground.
Jalon Daniels Looked Ready
With Baker Mayfield unavailable, Jalon Daniels walked into Dallas and played winning football.
19/25 | 189 yards | 1 TD | 0 INT
That's a 76% completion rate, exceeding the S³ elite quarterback completion benchmark of 70%.
Daniels didn't need 300 yards.
He needed to make good decisions, protect the football, complement the running game and make plays when Dallas forced him to.
He did.
His poise was especially impressive. Daniels added 23 rushing yards, extended plays and never looked overwhelmed by the moment.
For a young quarterback operating on the road, this was an impressive performance.
Todd Bowles Gave Dak Problems
Dak Prescott finished with 316 passing yards, but the raw yardage doesn't tell the story.
24/42 | 316 yards | 1 TD | 2 INT
Prescott completed only 57.1% of his passes.
In S³'s assessment, Todd Bowles' changing defensive looks kept Prescott uncomfortable for much of the night. Tampa's coverage and pressure disguises disrupted Dallas even without recording a sack.
Dallas eventually generated some explosive passing plays, particularly through George Pickens, who finished with nine receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown, but Tampa had already dictated too much of the game.
And after CeeDee Lamb's monster performance the previous week, Tampa held him to just two receptions for nine yards. Lamb also exited the game with a quadriceps injury.
Three Turnovers Changed Everything
Dallas also lost the turnover battle:
Tampa Bay: 0 turnovers
Dallas: 3 turnovers
Prescott threw two interceptions, and Dallas lost a fumble on a KaVontae Turpin kickoff return.
That's a minus-three turnover differential.
Tampa didn't give Dallas the same opportunities.
For an offense being directed by a young quarterback, protecting the football that well was enormous.
Tampa Tried to Give Dallas Life
The Buccaneers weren't perfect.
Not even close.
Tampa committed an incredible 14 penalties for 92 yards.
They also made a questionable fourth-quarter decision while leading 24–10.
Facing fourth-and-goal from the 1, Tampa elected to go for the touchdown instead of attempting the field goal that, if successful, would have produced a 27–10 three-possession advantage.
Dallas made the stop.
Prescott then drove the Cowboys 99 yards for a touchdown, cutting Tampa's lead to 24–16 after Dallas failed on its two-point conversion attempt.
Suddenly, Dallas had life.
The Buccaneers survived, but that decision could have been costly.
S³ Final Word
Dallas missed an opportunity.
The Cowboys could have walked out of Thursday night 3–2 and above .500. Instead, they're 2–3 after losing at home to a previously winless team.
Tampa Bay finally has something to build on.
The Buccaneers are only 1–4, so one victory doesn't erase their difficult start. But Thursday night showed what this team can look like when the running game, offensive line, quarterback and defense work together.
For Dallas, the questions are much more uncomfortable.
S³ picked the Cowboys to win, but we also questioned whether their defense could overcome its weaknesses.
Thursday night provided the answer.
241 rushing yards allowed. Three turnovers. Sixteen points scored.
Dallas' flaws weren't hidden.
Tampa Bay exposed them.
Final: Buccaneers 24 — Cowboys 16
Tampa Bay gets into the win column. Dallas misses its chance to get above .500.
