S³: Cowboys Face a Momentum Test Against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0–4) at Dallas Cowboys (2–2)
Thursday, October 8 • 8:15 p.m. ET • AT&T Stadium • Prime Video

Dallas earned an emotional victory against Houston. Now the Cowboys must turn it into sustained momentum.

Coming off their dramatic 34–30 comeback against the Texans, Dallas enters Thursday’s matchup with Tampa Bay with a chance to move above .500 and tighten the NFC East race. The opportunity is clear. So is the challenge: recover quickly, reset mentally and avoid letting one memorable win become a distraction.

Dak Prescott addressed that concern after beating Houston: “We can't sit here and have some winning hangover so early in the season.”

Dallas Has an Opening in the NFC East

The division adds urgency. Philadelphia faces Jacksonville in London, while the Giants visit Washington. A Dallas victory and losses by Philadelphia and New York would bring the Cowboys level with the Giants at 3–2.

New York would retain the head-to-head advantage after its 28–20 season-opening win over Dallas. Still, a second consecutive Cowboys victory would put them firmly on the Giants’ heels.

Tampa Bay’s 0–4 record makes Dallas the logical favorite, but it does not tell the entire story. The Buccaneers have lost by six, four, seven and three points. They have remained within striking distance without finding a way to finish.

Dallas should expect a competitive opponent, not an easy recovery game.

Tampa’s Best Chance Starts on the Ground

Offensive production remains Tampa Bay’s biggest concern. The Buccaneers average 19 points per game, ranking 24th, and 172.3 passing yards, tied for 28th. With Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury, rookie Jalon Daniels takes responsibility for an offense already struggling to score.

The running game offers a more promising route. Tampa averages 106 rushing yards per game, ranking 17th. Dallas allows 150.3, ranking 31st, along with 239.3 passing yards, ranking 24th.

Those weaknesses give the Buccaneers an opening.

If Bucky Irving and the Tampa backfield establish the run, Daniels can operate with shorter third downs and more favorable play-action opportunities. Sustained possessions would also keep Prescott and the Dallas offense on the sideline.

But possession alone will not be enough. Tampa must finish drives with touchdowns. Moving the ball and settling for field goals would leave its central problem unresolved.

Strength Meets Strength When Dallas Has the Ball

Tampa’s defense deserves more respect than its winless record suggests. The Buccaneers rank fourth in total yards allowed and third against the run, although they surrender 24 points per game.

That unit gives Tampa a chance to keep Thursday’s game within reach. It also presents a meaningful test for a Dallas offense averaging 30.5 points, second in the NFL.

The Cowboys have shown they can produce enough points to overcome trouble. Their defense, allowing 28 per game and ranking 29th, continues to make that firepower necessary.

Dallas would rather build an early advantage than depend on another late escape. Against Tampa’s defensive front, nevertheless, the Cowboys may have to earn their separation through Prescott and the passing game.

The S³ Benchmark Check

Against the S³ targets of 24 points scored and 17 points allowed, both teams reveal a clear imbalance.

Dallas scores 6.5 points above the offensive benchmark but allows 11 more than the defensive target. Tampa falls five points short offensively and gives up seven more than the defensive benchmark.

For the Cowboys, offensive strength is covering defensive weakness. For the Buccaneers, a strong yardage defense has not been enough to offset limited scoring.

That frames Thursday’s central question: can Tampa capitalize on Dallas’ defensive problems before Prescott and the Cowboys create separation?

The Buccaneers’ route to an upset runs through an effective ground game, ball security and a defense that makes Dallas work for every scoring opportunity. Their margin for error remains narrow, particularly with a rookie quarterback leading the offense.

S³ Prediction: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 21

S³ expects Tampa Bay to remain competitive, but Dallas has the offensive firepower to finish the job. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb give the Cowboys the edge when a scoring drive becomes essential.

The task is to carry the confidence from Houston into Thursday without carrying over the emotional hangover. Dallas cannot afford to overlook another opponent searching for its first victory.

A second consecutive win would lift the Cowboys to 3–2 and strengthen their position in the NFC East. Houston gave Dallas a dramatic victory. Tampa Bay gives the Cowboys a chance to prove they can build on it.