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NFL GAME CENTER | THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
October 22, 2026 | Week 7 Preview
New England Patriots (4–2) at Chicago Bears (4–2)
Soldier Field | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
S³ Prediction: Chicago Bears 24, New England Patriots 21
Two Quarterbacks With Something to Prove
Thursday Night Football brings together two quarterbacks who are beginning to establish themselves among the NFL's premier young talents.
Drake Maye is playing like an MVP candidate again. Caleb Williams returned from injury last Sunday and reminded everyone why Chicago made him the first overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Both quarterbacks enter Thursday's contest playing excellent football, but this matchup goes beyond Maye versus Williams.
The Patriots and Bears are remarkably similar statistically. Their defenses are practically identical, their offenses rank among the league's top seven in total yardage, and both teams are 4–2.
Something has to give Thursday night.
Drake Maye Has Rediscovered His MVP Form
Whatever concerns followed Maye's September 27 performance against Jacksonville have quickly disappeared.
Over his last three appearances, Maye has thrown for 878 yards, 10 touchdowns and just one interception.
| Opponent | Yards | TD | INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 269 | 3 | 1 | 97.7 |
| Las Vegas | 374 | 4 | 0 | 150.9 |
| New York Jets | 235 | 3 | 0 | 110.8 |
| TOTAL | 878 | 10 | 1 |
More importantly, New England won all three contests.
Maye's 374-yard, four-touchdown performance against Las Vegas was particularly impressive. He followed that up with another three-touchdown outing against the Jets.
That's seven touchdown passes without an interception in two games.
Maye isn't simply putting up impressive statistics. He's taking care of the football, distributing it effectively and producing victories.
There is a legitimate MVP-caliber quarterback operating New England's offense again.
Nevertheless, protecting him Thursday night could prove challenging.
Caleb Williams Makes His Return With a Statement
Chicago had to navigate three consecutive games without Williams, who was sidelined by a hamstring injury.
His return against Atlanta couldn't have come at a better time.
Williams completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in Chicago's 31–23 victory over the Falcons.
His 83.3% completion percentage was especially impressive.
Williams has always possessed the arm talent to make spectacular throws. What Chicago needs is a quarterback who can consistently operate within the offense, identify opportunities and deliver the football without unnecessarily extending plays.
Against Atlanta, Williams demonstrated that ability.
The Bears have developed an effective rushing attack, giving Williams an opportunity to operate without carrying the entire offense on his shoulders.
That combination could make Chicago particularly dangerous moving forward.
Tale of the Tape: These Teams Are Almost Identical
A closer examination of their numbers reveals just how evenly matched Thursday's opponents are.
OFFENSIVE COMPARISON
2026 regular season, through Week 6
| Category | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.7 | 25.0 |
| Total yards/game | 374.2 | 388.3 |
| Passing yards/game | 243.5 | 227.7 |
| Rushing yards/game | 130.7 | 160.7 |
Chicago possesses the slight advantage in scoring and total offense, while New England produces more passing yards.
The biggest difference is on the ground.
Chicago averages 160.7 rushing yards per game compared with New England's 130.7.
That 30-yard advantage is significant, particularly against an opponent whose defense has been excellent at limiting rushing production.
DEFENSIVE COMPARISON
| Category | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed/game | 18.8 | 19.8 |
| Total yards allowed/game | 300.8 | 302.3 |
| Passing yards allowed/game | 209.0 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed/game | 91.8 | 90.5 |
How close are these defenses?
Just 1.5 yards per game separate their total defensive averages.
New England allows only one fewer point per game, while Chicago holds a 1.3-yard advantage against the run.
There is no overwhelming defensive advantage for either side.
This is the type of matchup where situational football, turnovers and execution inside the red zone could determine the outcome.
Three Factors That Could Decide Thursday Night
1. New England's Offensive Line
The Patriots enter Thursday dealing with significant injuries along their offensive line.
Guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown have been ruled out, while tackle Morgan Moses is questionable.
That's a difficult situation for any quarterback, especially against a Chicago defense capable of generating pressure with aggressive blitz packages.
New England must find ways to protect Maye without allowing Chicago to dictate the entire game defensively.
Quick passes, effective protection adjustments and a productive rushing attack will be important.
Maye has been outstanding recently, but Chicago presents a different challenge when the protection in front of him is compromised.
2. Chicago's Ground Attack Against New England's Defense
Chicago's 160.7 rushing yards per game represent one of the Bears' biggest advantages.
Nevertheless, New England is allowing just 91.8 rushing yards per contest.
That creates an interesting battle.
D'Andre Swift enters the matchup with 398 rushing yards, six touchdowns and a 4.2-yard average per carry.
The Bears cannot afford to become one-dimensional against New England's defense.
Establishing the run would allow Chicago to control possession, create manageable third downs and prevent Maye from receiving additional opportunities.
With fellow running back Kyle Monangai ruled out, Swift's role becomes even more important.
3. Which Quarterback Protects the Football?
Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns against one interception over his last three appearances.
Williams returned against Atlanta without throwing an interception and completed more than 83% of his passes.
Both quarterbacks are demonstrating improved efficiency.
In a game featuring two defenses allowing fewer than 20 points per contest, one unnecessary turnover could change everything.
There may not be enough separation between these teams to overcome multiple mistakes.
S³ Final Analysis: Chicago Has the Slight Edge
New England enters Thursday with the hotter quarterback, but Chicago possesses a slight statistical advantage offensively, a stronger rushing attack and home-field advantage.
The Bears also have an opportunity to exploit New England's offensive line injuries.
That doesn't mean Chicago should expect an easy night.
Maye has demonstrated that he can take over games, and New England's defense is capable of keeping the Patriots competitive regardless of the opponent.
Chicago needs Williams to continue playing within the offense rather than unnecessarily forcing the spectacular.
If the Bears establish their rushing attack, protect the football and force Maye into difficult third-down situations, they should have enough to win.
Expect a competitive game that remains undecided entering the fourth quarter.
S³ OFFICIAL PREDICTION
CHICAGO BEARS 24
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 21
Chicago's rushing attack and home-field advantage provide just enough separation. Maye keeps New England within striking distance, but Williams delivers another efficient performance to push the Bears to 5–2.
Performance Over Potential. Production Over Reputation.
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