Sweet Science Sports Note: My rankings are my own. The draft projections reflect what NFL scouting experts are saying - so don't confuse where I rank a quarterback with where the draft community expects him to go. These are two different conversations, and both matter.
The Big Picture
The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class has a clear-cut top prospect in Fernando Mendoza, but after him, things get interesting in a hurry. There's legitimate talent scattered throughout the later rounds - and a few names that could genuinely surprise at the next level.
Here's a quick look at the class before we dive in:
Top QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) - A strong-armed passer with elite football intelligence, widely expected to go in the top three picks.
Highest Upside: Ty Simpson (Alabama) - Elite physical traits and the ability to navigate pressure, though limited starting experience and some late-season inconsistency leave scouts cautious.
Top Pocket Passer: Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) - The quintessential gunslinger with polished mechanics and a pro-ready release.
Sleeper: Cole Payton (North Dakota State) - Strong physical tools and dual-threat ability that could make him a steal in the middle rounds.
Late-Round Gem: Cade Klubnik (Clemson) - A senior with real starting experience and a high-caliber program background, quietly worth a Day 3 investment.
What the Experts Are Saying
Mendoza is the consensus No. 1 quarterback - and it isn't particularly close. After him and Simpson, nevertheless, the draft value of quarterbacks drops sharply to late Day 2 or early Day 3 territory. Carson Beck (Miami) and Drew Allar (Penn State) are regarded as legitimate prospects, but both carry question marks around arm strength and performance under pressure that keep them out of the top tier.
Sweet Science Sports' 2026 QB Rankings
1. Fernando Mendoza - Indiana
Jr. | 6-5, 224 lbs.
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner and national champion is the class's undisputed top prospect. Mendoza capped an undefeated 16-0 season with a standout Pro Day, cementing his status as the heavy favorite to be selected first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders. At 6-foot-5 with elite arm talent and football IQ to match, he checks every box NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback.
2. Ty Simpson - Alabama
Jr. | 6-2, 208 lbs.
Simpson is the clear No. 2 quarterback in this class, though the gap between him and Mendoza is significant. A high-IQ, rhythm-based pocket passer with good accuracy and the physical traits teams covet, he's projected to land in the late first or early second round. The concern? Limited starting experience and a noticeable drop-off in performance down the stretch of the 2025 season. There's upside here - but also uncertainty.
3. Cole Payton - North Dakota State
Sr. | 6-3, 233 lbs.
Don't let the FCS label fool you. Payton is a legitimate NFL prospect - a 6'3", 232-pound dual-threat weapon that scouts have compared to a bigger version of Taysom Hill. His arm strength and athleticism are genuinely elite, and there's a real case to be made that he rises into Day 2 territory. Projected as a fourth or fifth-round pick right now, he has the tools to outperform his draft slot.
4. Garrett Nussmeier - LSU
Sr. | 6-1, 205 lbs.
Nussmeier is everything you want from a classic pocket passer - quick release, live arm, and the kind of pro-style experience that translates immediately. He's the gunslinger of this class. Flaws exist, but so does genuine starting potential. He's widely projected as a Day 2 pick, and a strong pre-draft process could push him into the second round without much resistance.
5. Cade Klubnik - Clemson
Sr. | 6-2, 210 lbs.
Klubnik's draft stock took a hit after a 2025 regression following a brilliant 2024 campaign (36 touchdowns). Injuries didn't help. What once looked like a potential first-round pick has settled into Day 3 territory - but the talent that made him a name to know is still there. For the right team, he's worth the investment as a developmental option with legitimate starting upside.
6. Drew Allar - Penn State
Sr. | 6-5, 235 lbs.
The size is legitimate, and the arm talent - particularly as a vertical thrower - is real. But questions about decision-making, accuracy under pressure, and mechanical consistency have slid Allar down boards from where he once sat. He's a mid-round prospect now, projected in the fourth or fifth round, with the ceiling of a solid backup or low-end starter if a coaching staff can clean up the technical issues.
7. Carson Beck - Miami
Sr. | 6-4, 225 lbs.
Beck is a high-floor prospect - experienced, smart, and reliable enough to stick on an NFL roster. He's not a top-tier talent, but mock drafts have consistently linked him to teams like the Arizona Cardinals in the third round. He projects as a dependable backup or a developmental starter rather than a franchise cornerstone, which is a perfectly respectable outcome for a player with his profile.
8. Behren Morton - Texas Tech
Sr. | 6-2, 210 lbs.
Morton's arm is special - a 61 mph throw at the combine turned heads. The problem is everything surrounding it. Injury risk is a legitimate concern, and his pocket presence and decision-making need work. He carries a Day 3 grade (roughly sixth or seventh round), but for a team with the patience to develop him, there's real upside buried in that frame.
9. Sawyer Robertson - Baylor
Sr. | 6-4, 220 lbs.
Robertson fits neatly into a West Coast or quick-game offensive system. Scouts see him as a Day 3 developmental pick - a QB2 candidate with the arm to compete for a roster spot and potentially grow into a reliable backup role. Not a starter at this point, but a smart team can find value here in the later rounds.
10. Luke Altmyer - Illinois
Sr. | 6-2, 215 lbs.
Altmyer is a high-efficiency passer with solid decision-making and mobility - a prototypical high-floor backup. He's not going to wow you with elite traits, but he won't hurt you either. Expect him to land in the fifth through seventh round, or sign as a priority undrafted free agent with a legitimate shot at making a 53-man roster.
11. Taylen Green - Arkansas
Sr. | 6-6, 235 lbs.
The combination of size (6'6") and speed (4.37 40-yard dash) makes Green one of the more physically intriguing names in this class. He's raw - scouts won't argue otherwise - but the tools are uncommon, and dual-threat quarterbacks with that kind of frame don't come around often. A Day 3 pick with legitimate developmental potential.
12. Jalon Daniels - Kansas
Sr. | 6-0, 220 lbs.
Daniels is a dynamic playmaker - elite athleticism, a powerful arm, and the ability to make plays in and out of the pocket. Injury history clouds the picture, and his work as a traditional pocket passer still needs refinement. He entered the 2026 Draft officially after the 2025 season and projects as a Day 3 pick or a priority undrafted free agent.
13. Diego Pavia - Vanderbilt
Sr. | 6-0, 207 lbs.
The 2025 Heisman Trophy finalist brought a level of competitive fire to Vanderbilt that the program hadn't seen in years. Pavia's dual-threat ability and football IQ are genuine. His stature (listed at 5'9" by some scouts) and unconventional style are the obstacles. He's a Day 3 pick or priority undrafted free agent, but the right system could make him a serious problem for opposing defenses.
14. Haynes King - Georgia Tech
Sr. | 6-3, 215 lbs.
King is a grit-and-grind quarterback who plays bigger than his numbers suggest. His speed (4.46 40-yard dash) and football IQ make him attractive as a dual-threat option in the right scheme. He projects as a late-round pick or a high-upside undrafted free agent - the kind of player who earns his way onto a roster through relentless work ethic.
15. Joe Fagnano - UConn
Sr. | 6-4, 225 lbs.
Fagnano is the definition of a sleeper. A high-efficiency passer who protects the football and plays with poise well beyond his recruiting profile, he caught eyes at the East-West Shrine Bowl and the 2026 NFL Combine. Projected as a Day 3 pick or undrafted free agent, the right opportunity could unlock a quiet starter-in-waiting.
