Three weeks into the season, expectations and reality are pulling in different directions. Some teams are winning more than expected. Others are showing progress despite losing records. And several supposed contenders are already searching for answers.
SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AFC
Raiders - 3–0
One of the biggest positive surprises of the opening month. Las Vegas has put itself in position to make the AFC West race more interesting than expected. Now comes the challenge of sustaining it.
Jets - 1–2
The record doesn’t tell the whole story. They have been competitive and stayed in every game. That earns them a place here, but the next step is turning those opportunities into wins.
Browns - 2–1
Cleveland is in the early AFC North race, and Deshaun Watson is slowly showing signs of getting back into form. I’m not calling it a complete return yet, but the direction is encouraging.
NFC
Vikings - 3–0
The defense still looks top tier. Minnesota has a foundation it can win with, even while the offense needs work. Banking victories while having room to improve is a good position to occupy.
Cardinals - 1–2
Few expected Arizona to beat the Chargers in Week 1. That victory alone deserves recognition. The Cardinals have already shown they can disrupt somebody else’s plans.
SURPRISINGLY BAD
AFC
Texans - 0–3: The biggest surprise.
From what I’ve seen, C.J. Stroud has looked better than Houston’s record suggests. His play isn’t my main concern. The defense has underperformed, and a team expected to contend needs a complete performance before this hole gets deeper.
Chargers - 0–3
Justin Herbert has the ability, but I’m not seeing the progression I expected. At some point, the talent has to produce consistent results. This start raises questions about both Herbert and the team around him.
Patriots - 1–2
Drake Maye has one passing touchdown, six interceptions and two fumbles, with one lost: seven turnovers through three games. That puts too much pressure on everyone else. New England needs better ball security and more touchdown production from its quarterback.
NFC
Rams - 1–2
Myles Garrett’s absence matters, but this remains a disappointing start. Los Angeles led Denver 16–0 at halftime before losing 30–26. Denver’s 30 second-half points included a pick-six, so the defense doesn’t own all of them. Still, surrendering the winning touchdown drive exposed a team struggling to finish.
Eagles - Same offensive concerns
The offense still looks too predictable. Where is the creativity? Philadelphia needs to give Jalen Hurts more opportunities to attack downfield and make defenses cover more of the field.
Packers - 1–2
Expectations were higher than this. Three games don’t decide a season, but Green Bay needs to start looking like the contender it was expected to be.
