Houston enters the 2026–27 college basketball season with another Top 10 ranking, an established defensive philosophy and the expectations that accompany being one of the nation's most consistent programs.
Following a 30–7 campaign that ended in the NCAA Tournament's Sweet 16, Kelvin Sampson begins his 13th season at Houston with a significantly reconstructed roster.
The Cougars enter the S³ Preseason Top 25 at No. 10.
But maintaining the program's national standing will require replacing considerable offensive production without sacrificing its defensive identity.
Tugler Anchors the Defense
Senior forward Joseph Tugler returns as Houston's most important defensive player.
Standing 6-foot-8, Tugler provides rim protection, physicality, rebounding and the versatility to defend multiple positions.
His value extends far beyond his scoring averages.
A two-time finalist for the Naismith National Defensive Player of the Year award, Tugler represents the identity that has made Houston one of college basketball's most difficult opponents.
He is our selection as Houston's best player.
A Reconstructed Offense
Houston faces a significant challenge following the departures of Kingston Flemings, Chris Cenac Jr., Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan.
The Cougars must establish new offensive leadership while integrating several transfers and freshmen.
LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. provides an experienced point guard who averaged 15.3 points and 6.5 assists last season.
Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie adds size and frontcourt production, while Corey Hadnot II brings additional backcourt experience.
The challenge is developing chemistry and reliable scoring against quality defenses.
Houston's October 25 exhibition victory over Michigan provided an encouraging indication of its potential.
Thomas recorded 25 points and seven assists as the Cougars defeated the defending national champions 83–66.
Still, exhibition results are not guarantees of regular-season success.
Eight Games Against AP Top 25 Opponents
Houston faces eight confirmed regular-season matchups against six teams appearing in the official AP Preseason Top 25.
| Opponent | AP Rank | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | #5 | 2 |
| Kansas | #17 | 1 |
| Iowa State | #18 | 1 |
| Texas Tech | #19 | 2 |
| Alabama | #20 | 1 |
| BYU | #25 | 1 |
| Total | 8 |
Average Preseason Ranked Opponent: No. 16.0
Additional ranked competition is possible during the Players Era tournament.
The two meetings with Arizona could have major implications in determining the Big 12 regular-season champion.
Can Houston Win the Big 12?
Yes.
Houston enters the season as one of the conference's leading championship contenders.
Arizona is the preseason favorite, but Sampson has established a program capable of competing with the best teams in the country.
The Cougars possess the defensive personnel and coaching experience to challenge for another conference championship.
However, their offensive development will ultimately determine whether they can overtake Arizona.
Houston is a serious Big 12 contender, not the preseason favorite.
S³ Season Projection
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| S³ Ranking | #10 |
| AP Preseason Ranking | #10 |
| Proposed Regular Season | 26–6 |
| Big 12 Record | 13–5 |
| Best Player | Joseph Tugler |
| Biggest X-Factor | Dedan Thomas Jr. |
| Ranked Opponent Games | 8 confirmed |
| Average Ranked Opponent | #16.0 |
| Big 12 Championship | Serious contender |
| Expected NCAA Finish | Sweet 16 |
| Tournament Ceiling | Elite Eight |
| Possible Downside | Round of 32 |
| Further Downside | First-round exit |
S³ Final Word
Houston has established itself as one of the nation's strongest defensive programs, but the departure of several important offensive contributors creates legitimate questions.
Joseph Tugler provides the defensive foundation. Dedan Thomas Jr. gives the Cougars an experienced floor general, and Kelvin Sampson has demonstrated an ability to develop competitive teams despite roster turnover.
But the Cougars must establish consistent offensive production before being considered a legitimate national championship favorite.
S³ projects Houston to finish 26–6 and advance to the Sweet 16.
An Elite Eight appearance would represent the Cougars exceeding their preseason expectations.
S³ Prediction: 26–6 | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight Ceiling.
Rank the team, not the reputation.
