Iowa State enters the 2026–27 season facing one of college basketball's more interesting challenges: maintaining national relevance after losing two of its most productive players.
Following a 29–8 campaign that ended in the Sweet 16, head coach T.J. Otzelberger must establish a new offensive identity without Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic.
The Cyclones begin the S³ preseason rankings at No. 17, with a projected 25–7 regular-season record and expectations of returning to the NCAA Tournament.
Lipsey Returns to Lead Iowa State
The return of Tamin Lipsey provides Iowa State with something many reconstructed programs lack: an experienced floor general.
Lipsey averaged 13.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 2.3 steals last season.
His leadership, ball distribution and defensive ability make him the Cyclones' most valuable returning player.
The additions of Jaquan Johnson, Tre Singleton, Leon Bond III, Ryan Prather Jr. and Taj Manning provide additional experience and depth.
The challenge will be replacing the offensive production that departed with Jefferson and Momcilovic.
The Toure Factor
Sophomore Killyan Toure is another important piece of Iowa State's future.
After starting all 37 games as a freshman, Toure enters the season recovering from shoulder surgery, with his return targeted for January.
His absence could affect Iowa State's early-season performance and place additional pressure on its reconstructed rotation.
The Cyclones must remain competitive until their backcourt returns to full strength.
Six Guaranteed Games Against Ranked Opponents
Iowa State faces six confirmed matchups against five opponents appearing in the official AP Preseason Top 25.
Average Ranked Opponent: No. 15.5
| Opponent | AP Rank | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | #5 | 1 |
| Houston | #10 | 1 |
| Kansas | #17 | 2 |
| Texas Tech | #19 | 1 |
| BYU | #25 | 1 |
| Total | 6 |
Additional ranked matchups are possible during the Players Era tournament.
Can Iowa State Win the Big 12?
The Cyclones were selected fourth in the conference's preseason coaches poll.
Arizona and Houston enter as the leading favorites, while Kansas also carries higher preseason expectations.
Iowa State has enough defensive experience and coaching continuity to challenge those programs, but winning the Big 12 would require significant offensive development.
The Cyclones qualify as a conference championship dark horse rather than a favorite.
S³ Season Projection
| Category | Prediction |
|---|---|
| S³ Ranking | #17 |
| AP Preseason Ranking | #18 |
| Proposed Regular Season | 25–7 |
| Big 12 Record | 12–6 |
| Best Player | Tamin Lipsey |
| Biggest X-Factor | Killyan Toure |
| Ranked Opponent Games | 6 confirmed |
| Average Ranked Opponent | #15.5 |
| Conference Championship | Dark horse |
| Expected NCAA Finish | Round of 32 |
| Tournament Ceiling | Sweet 16 |
| Possible Downside | First-round exit |
| Further Downside | Miss NCAA Tournament |
S³ Final Word
Iowa State has established itself as one of the more dependable defensive programs in college basketball under T.J. Otzelberger.
But losing two major offensive contributors creates legitimate questions that cannot be dismissed simply because of the program's recent success.
Lipsey provides leadership, the incoming transfers offer additional options, and Toure's eventual return could strengthen the roster considerably.
S³ projects a 25–7 regular season and another NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Round of 32 representing Iowa State's expected destination.
A Sweet 16 appearance would demonstrate that Otzelberger successfully rebuilt the offense without sacrificing the program's defensive identity.
S³ Prediction: 25–7 | Round of 32 | Sweet 16 Ceiling.
Rank the team, not the reputation.
